Ilia Topuria’s next opponent may already be taking shape following his lightweight title loss to Justin Gaethje at UFC Freedom 250.
According to Polymarket, Paddy Pimblett is currently viewed as the most likely next opponent for the former champion, with a 57% probability compared to Arman Tsarukyan’s 43%. While the figures do not represent official UFC plans, they reflect market sentiment surrounding one of the division’s biggest potential matchups.
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‘El Matador‘ suffered the first defeat of his professional career when Gaethje stopped him to capture the undisputed lightweight title. Despite Topuria’s desire for an immediate rematch, the new champion has made it clear that he has no intention of granting one, arguing that Tsarukyan has done more to earn the next title opportunity.
Gaethje has repeatedly stated that Tsarukyan is “way more deserving” of a championship fight, effectively leaving Topuria in need of another high-profile win before re-entering the title picture.
Ilia Topuria vs. Paddy Pimblett Is the Biggest Fight Outside the Title Picture
A matchup between Ilia Topuria and Paddy Pimblett would be one of the UFC’s biggest non-title fights.
The rivalry between the pair stretches back several years and has featured repeated verbal exchanges, heated media appearances and a near-physical altercation before either fighter reached championship contention. Since then, both men have developed into legitimate lightweight stars, making the bout significantly bigger than it would have been when their feud first began.
Check out the face-off between Ilia Topuria and Paddy Pimblett below:
Pimblett also enters the matchup with considerable momentum. At UFC 329, the Liverpool native produced arguably the best performance of his career, submitting Benoît Saint Denis in the opening round with a guillotine choke. The emphatic victory silenced many of his critics and established him as a genuine contender at 155 pounds.
Tsarukyan’s title path appears clear
While Arman Tsarukyan remains a possible opponent for Ilia Topuria according to the prediction market, his immediate future appears to be heading in another direction.
The Armenian is widely expected to rematch former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira at UFC 331, a contest with major championship implications. If that bout materializes, it would effectively remove Tsarukyan from the conversation for Topuria’s return fight.
With ‘The Highlight’ unwilling to offer an immediate rematch and Tsarukyan seemingly occupied, a showdown between Topuria and Pimblett has emerged as the most logical fight available. It settles one of the UFC’s longest-running personal rivalries, pits two of the division’s biggest stars against each other, and gives the winner a clear pathway back into lightweight title contention.
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