Islam Makhachev defending his welterweight title against Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330 is a fight where the stats tell a detailed and revealing story about where the edges lie for both men.
The Physical and Stylistic Contrast Between Islam Makhachev and Ian Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry enters the matchup with a significant reach advantage over Islam Makhachev, measuring 1.89m compared to Makhachev’s 1.79m, a 10-centimeter difference that could prove valuable during the striking exchanges. Garry’s longer frame could allow him to maintain distance, land shots from the outside, and make it more difficult for Makhachev to close the gap and initiate his takedowns.
Garry is also six years younger at 28.
Makhachev is a southpaw, while Garry is orthodox, which creates natural alignment issues for both men and adds another technical layer to every exchange.
Where Islam Makhachev Dominates
The grappling numbers across Islam Makhachev’s recent fights are oppressive. He landed all four of his takedown attempts against Jack Della Maddalena and converted 67% of his attempts against Charles Oliveira. His ground-and-pound numbers also reflect what happens once he gets his opponents to the mat, landing seven of 12 head strikes on the ground against Maddalena alone.
Makhachev has also recorded submission victories over Renato Moicano, Dustin Poirier, Charles Oliveira and Dan Hooker, among many others, highlighting the threat he poses once he gets an opponent to the mat.
Garry, meanwhile, suffered the only loss of his professional career against Shavkat Rakhmonov, but it came by unanimous decision rather than submission. In fact, it was Garry who came closest to securing a submission, nearly finishing Rakhmonov with a rear-naked choke.
Where Ian Machado Garry Can Compete
Ian Garry’s striking volume against Belal Muhammad showed genuine elite-level output, as he landed 35 of 98 head strikes and an extraordinary 27 of 28 leg kicks, a 96% leg-kick accuracy rate that helped him neutralize a former welterweight champion.
Against Carlos Prates, Garry threw 141 total strikes. His size, reach, and dangerous leg-kick game give him tools to work with on the feet that not every opponent Makhachev has faced has possessed.
The Realistic Assessment
Ian Machado Garry wins this fight only if he can keep it standing, consistently use his size advantage, and avoid prolonged grappling exchanges with the discipline required over five championship rounds. That is an enormous ask against one of the most complete grapplers in the sport.
Makhachev’s path to victory runs directly through Garry’s known vulnerability on the ground, and his takedown accuracy across recent fights suggests he will find opportunities to exploit it.
The stats point heavily toward Makhachev, but Garry’s size, reach, and leg-kick volume make this a more competitive matchup than the odds might suggest.
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