Thirteen years of evolution separate these two fighters from their 2013 meeting, and the rematch at UFC 329 on July 11 in Las Vegas could not look more different from what they produced the first time around.
Conor McGregor was a 24-year-old featherweight grinding through the early stages of his UFC career when he edged Max Holloway by decision, tearing his ACL in the process and still winning. Holloway was 21 and still finding himself as a fighter.
What steps into the octagon at welterweight this time is something neither man resembles from that night. ‘The Notorious’ is 37, five years removed from a leg break that threatened his career, carrying no competitive rust data for anyone to accurately measure.
‘Blessed’ is 34, arguably the most active elite fighter of his generation, fresh off a decision loss to Charles Oliveira in March 2026, but with a resume that includes wins over Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Jose Aldo twice, Brian Ortega, and Yair Rodriguez. The statistical record heading into this rematch tells a detailed and unforgiving story for both men.
How Conor McGregor Beats Max Holloway at UFC 329
Conor McGregor’s most underrated weapon in the 2013 fight was his leg kicks, landing 15 of 23 attempts at 65% accuracy, a number that holds real significance given Max Holloway’s orthodox stance creates a natural left leg target for a southpaw.
McGregor’s reach advantage of 1.88m against Holloway’s 1.75m is a 13cm difference that matters enormously at welterweight, where he can operate his left hand at a distance Holloway simply cannot close cleanly.
The stats also show Holloway’s chin has been genuinely tested recently. He hit the canvas against Ilia Topuria in October 2024, and Dustin Poirier pushed him close in July 2025.
Against a well-timed left hand from a southpaw with McGregor’s precision, that vulnerability becomes the entire fight. The Irishman’s path is a short, disciplined one built on reach control, timed counters, and early damage before the five-round distance becomes a factor.
How Max Holloway Beats Conor McGregor at UFC 329
The volume numbers make the case almost automatically. Max Holloway threw 378 total strikes against Dustin Poirier in 2025, 309 against Justin Gaethje, and 473 against Dustin Poirier in their championship bout in 2019.
‘The Notorious’ has not absorbed professional-level punishment in five years. Against Conor McGregor in 2013, Holloway attempted 104 total strikes while still learning the sport at 21 years old. The 34-year-old version throws nearly four times that in a single round at peak output.
McGregor’s significant strike accuracy in that same 2013 fight was only 41%, meaning Holloway absorbed damage without crumbling. If this fight reaches rounds three, four, and five, the accumulated volume from Holloway becomes a completely different problem than anything McGregor has prepared for during a five-year absence.
The Deciding Factor
Conor McGregor wins if it ends early. Max Holloway wins if it doesn’t. The stats support both scenarios with equal conviction, which is precisely why this fight is genuinely unpredictable.
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